Commodity spread The Handbook of Commodity Spreads Price: $39.95 Wayne Esserman (800) 428-7808 (800) 382-7884 (Indiana) EWE Publishing P.O. Box 201 Delphi, Ind., 46923 The problem with spreads is that they just aren't sexy. There's not enough "pop" in them, not enough gusto. They ooze along, steadily but minutely changing day in and day out —a banker's deal. Not for them is the explosive single-day rally or collapse. Sure, the pros play these things and make money at them, but what fun are they? You have to follow at least two contracts at once, perhaps more. You have to worry about new crops and old crops. You can't figure out how to enter the order ("premium to the deferred!?") without your broker laughing at you. Getting data on past spread performance is an extra hassle. Updating it with your current software/data source is close to impossible, so it has to be done by hand. All this to eke out $.06 in oats over six months? Are you kidding? So what if the ROI is 100% — it's still only $.06 for God's sake. It can't be stated too strongly that the name of the game in futures is limiting the damage, not making big points. The concept is alien to nearly all walks of American life. Most eyes are looking for the big wins, but the trick is to be in the market long enough to take those big wins. Most traders don't think this way and the received wisdom is that, as a result, as many as 90% of retail traders lose their shirts and leave the game. The nifty thing about spreads is not that they make big gouts of money but that they rarely lose large amounts. |
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